Final Oscar Preidictions

So, today is the day. The final night of awards season, and perhaps the biggest night of the cinematic calendar – The Oscars.

Now, the Oscars aren’t for everyone, but I love them (although I may do a different post on that in itself), so here, for your viewing pleasure, I present to you, my final predictions for the films, writers, filmmakers and performers that I think well win the major Academy Awards.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Chris Terrio for Argo
Lucy Alibar & Benh Zeitlen for Beasts of the Southern Wild
David Magee for Life of Pi
Tony Kushner for Lincoln
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook

Likely winner: Tony Kushner for Lincoln
Possible winner: 
Chris Terrio for Argo
Should win: Kushner for Lincoln
Should be here: Stephen Chbosky for The Perks of Being a Wallflower

This category isn’t my strongest suit, especially considering that I haven’t seen Argo, which I really should at some point. Although it seems that it won’t be winning picture any more, I do think that Lincoln will take home, among a few other major Oscars, Adapted Screenplay, because, for me at least, Kushner’s writing was probably the best bit of the film.

Best Original Screenplay

Michael Haneke for Amour
Quentin Tarantino for Django Unchained
John Gatnis for Flight
Wes Anderson and Roman Coppola for Moonrise Kingdom
Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty

Likely winner: Tarantino for Django Unchained
Possible winner: Boal for Zero Dark Thirty
Should win: Haneke for Amour
Should be here: Drew Goddard and Joss Whedon for The Cabin in the Woods

I’ve seen the majority of the films here (apart from Flight which I haven’t seen since it’s UK release date), so I can comment that this is a pretty strong category. I suppose it’s more than possible for Haneke to get a surprise win, especially considering how ZD30 lost a lot of it’s Oscar buzz in the final stretch.

Best Supporting Actress

Amy Adams for The Master
Sally Field for Lincoln 
Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Helen Hunt for The Sessions
Jacki Weaver for Silver Linings Playbook

Likely winner: Hathaway for Les Miserables
Possible winner: Field for Lincoln
Should win: Hathaway
Should be here: Samantha Barks for Les Miserables

I’ll be honest here, how Weaver got in is nothing short of a mystery (but then I’m a little shocked by the major love SLP got on nomination day), which isn’t to say that she’s bad in the film, because she isn’t, but she has very little to do, and just isn’t that memory. And while we’re being honest, I’ve only put a possible winner here out of custom, because Hathaway is a lock, and she sure as hell deserves it.

Best Supporting Actor

Alan Arkin for Argo
Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook
Phillip Seymour Hoffman for The Master
Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Christoph Waltz for Django Unchained

Likely winner: Waltz for Django Unchained
Possible winner: Jones for Lincoln
Should win: Hoffman for The Master
Should be here: Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild

This is an incredibly strong category, and I’ve actually seen all of the nominated films. It seems that Waltz and Jones have had a fairly even split of the precursor awards, and this is probably one of the closest races. It’ll be interesting to see which of them wins, although I suppose if the whole night becomes peppered with love for SLP (which I kind of hope it doesn’t), then De Niro could take the Oscar, but I’m still hoping for a totally unexpected Hoffman win.

Best Actress

Jessica Chastain for Zero Dark Thirty
Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Emanuelle Riva for Amour
Quvenzhané Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts for The Impossible

Likely winner: Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Possible winner: Riva for Amour
Should win: Riva
Should be here: Rachel Weisz for Deep Blue Sea

Oh, Silver Linings Playbook, what are we gonna do with you? Again, I liked the movie quite a bit, but a lot of it, the performances in particular, seem a tad overrated. Now, Lawrence is good and covers a lot of range, but compared to Riva, this should even be a race. Riva’s performance is subtle, nuanced, and utterly heartbreaking. She needs this Oscar, and she really deserves it too.

Best Actor

Bradley Cooper for Silver Linings Playbook
Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Hugh Jackman for Les Miserables
Joaquin Phoenix for The Master
Denzel Washington for Flight

Likely winner: Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Possible winner: Phoenix for The Master
Should win: Day-Lewis
Should be here: Denis Lavant for Holy Motors

This is a very strong field, and there’s plenty of award worthy acting in there. Day-Lewis is perhaps the runaway winner for his mesmerising work as Abraham Lincoln, although if I had to pick a ‘second place’ then it’d be Phoenix, for his raw, powerful work as Freddie Quell.

Best Director

Michael Haneke for Amour
Benh Zeitlin for Beasts of the Southern Wild
Ang Lee for Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook

Likely winner: Spielberg for Lincoln
Possible winner: Lee for Life of Pi
Should win: Haneke for Amour
Should be here: Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master

This is an interesting category, if just for those who aren’t there as much as those who are (No Bigelow and no Afflcek), which of course, to me at least, kind of seals Spielberg’s win, especially considering his film won’t be winning picture. However, lots of people had been saying for a long time (back when Lincoln was the pick for Picture, so that’d be pre-PGA) that director was a two horse race between Spielberg and Lee, so an upset win could still happen.

Best Picture

Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty

Likely winner: Argo
Possible winner: Lincoln
Should win: Zero Dark Thirty
Should be here: The Master

Again, this is a very strong category, although I suppose it’s a bit of a lock by now. I’m still hoping ZD30 pulls a surprise win because, as much as I loved Amour, and as pleasantly surprised as I was by Lincoln, ZD30 is currently still my top film of the year.

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2 responses to “Final Oscar Preidictions

  1. Pingback: SONSOFBITCHES Blogathon – A Decade of Oscar Snubs | A World of Gods and Monsters

  2. Pingback: 2012-13 Season | A World of Gods and Monsters

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