Updated 2013-14 Oscar predictions

I haven’t made any Oscar predictions since the very beginning of the season (other than a short piece about some of the films coming out of Cannes), but that can probably just be attributed to a general silence on the blog for a while, something I hoping to rectify soon, especially with awards season – which I always enjoy – is reaching it’s peak.

Given it’s reaching the end of the year and all of the major awards contenders have been seen, bar a few like The Wolf of Wall Street and Foxcatcher, but by now I think the latter of those two won’t be around this season (although I may have read something to the contrary a little while ago, there’s been utter silence in terms of news about it for a while), then it seems now is as good a time as any to do a revised, which will hopefully prove to be more accurate than my predictions from the beginning of the season, which included nominations for films like The Fifth Estate and Diana.

Best Picture

Gravity
12 Years a Slave
American Hustle
Saving Mr. Banks
Captain Phillips
The Wolf of Wall Street
Inside Llewyn Davis
Her
Dallas Buyers Club
Nebraska

At this point most Best Picture ballots will probably all look like that, with Her being a surprising pick, although it seems more than possible after the groundswell of support it’s received from critics groups over the last week or so. There are a few films that, while not on this list of ten, are very Academy friendly, and so their rather middle of the road critical reception may not get in the way, and of all the films like that, the most likely to try to get into Best Picture is August: Osage County, with it’s award-winning credentials (Tracy Letts’ Pulitzer Prize and Tony Award winning play) and A-list cast (Meryl Streep, Julia Roberts and the like), it might just creep in. Blue Jasmine is also a possibility given Woody tends to receive nominations when he’s on form, and given this may be his best film of the last few years, the Academy might want to reward him for it with a Best Picture nomination.

Best Director

Alfonso Cuaron for Gravity
Steve McQueen for 12 Years a Slave
Alexander Payne for Nebraska
Paul Greengrass for Captain Phillips
David O. Russell for American Hustle

There are plenty of other contenders here, given that it’s in general been a strong year, and there have been some surprise critics winners (again, Her is suddenly in the conversation here), but these seem like fairly safe bets, given some of them have received nominations in the past (Russell, Greengrass and Payne), and something like Gravity just seems like a pick that’s “edgy” and “different” by Academy standards, so they might just go for it.

Best Actor

Chiwetel Ejiofor for 12 Years a Slave
Tom Hanks for Captain Phillips
Bruce Dern for Nebraska
Matthew McConaughey for Dallas Buyers Club
Robert Redford for All Is Lost

Perhaps the major surprise here is Redford, given that, although his performance is the strongest aspect of All Is Lost, it seemed to lose a lot of momentum after its release and the early raves for Redford, especially since there were no other major awards people were saying it should be nominated for (although Chandor’s direction is excellent), and until the NYFCC winners, he seemed like he was out of the race entirely (presumably to be replaced by Leonardo DiCaprio for The Wolf of Wall Street), but the win there has suddenly thrust him back into the conversation.

Best Actress

Sandra Bullock for Gravity
Meryl Street for August: Osage County
Cate Blanchett for Blue Jasmine
Emma Thompson for Saving Mr. Banks
Judi Dench for Philomena

While this list looks like most others at this point in the season, Best Actress is stronger this year than it’s been in quite a while, and there are plenty of performances that could sneak in (my gut is telling me that Streep and Dench are the most vulnerable to taken out), given Amy Adams has received acclaim for her turn in American Hustle, and many would say that she’s due for a leading nomination after several in Best Supporting Actress. And then there’s indie darling Frances Ha (which is unlikely, but not impossible, Gerwig’s performance is excellent, and if the screenplay gets in, there’s the chance that the Academy notice the strength of the performance too), and Julie Delpy in Before Midnight, which also, rather disappointingly, seems unlikely, but it would certainly be a pleasant surprise if she got in.

Best Supporting Actor

Will Forte for Nebraska
Michael Fassbender for 12 Years a Slave
Jared Leto for Dallas Buyers Club
Jonah Hill for The Wolf of Wall Street
Brakhad Abdi for Captain Phillips

Jonah Hill is an interesting one here, given many are saying that his work in Wolf… is the best performance of his career, and he does have a prior Oscar nomination (Moneyball), yet  at the same time, the sheer number of performances worthy of consideration could knock him off. There’s Tom Hanks in Saving Mr. Banks, which the Academy will probably love, and the late great James Gandolfini’s superb work in Enough Said which has gotten more notice after the critics groups (although his categorization as a supporting actor is debatable). While Abdi may be on the outside looking in on most ballots, I had to include him in my top five here simply because his performance is so good that I couldn’t justify not having it there.

Best Supporting Actress

Oprah for Lee Daniels’ The Butler
Jennifer Lawrence for American Hustle
Lupita Nyong’o for 12 Years a Slave
Octavia Spencer for Fruitvale Station
Jane Squibb for Nebraska

Squibb seems to have come out of nowhere, but all of a sudden she has quite a bit of momentum behind her, although I feel like she’s vulnerable to being knocked off, perhaps by someone like Julia Roberts (or one of the other women, maybe Margo Martindale, in August: Osage County) or, to make a brave/ridiculous (delete as appropriate) claim, if the Academy take to Her as strongly as the critics did, Johansson could get in for her voice performance, which would certainly be an interesting turn of events.

Best Original Screenplay

Blue Jasmine, by Woody Allen
Inside Llewyn Davis, by Joel and Eathan Coen
Nebraska, by Bob Nelson
Her, by Spike Jonze
American Hustle, by David O. Russell and Eric Singer

There are some other contenders here, like Gravity, but it doesn’t really have the support the film’s other aspects do; the film with the best chance of breaking in here is probably Saving Mr. Banks, although this list of five seems rather strong, although where Banks has a shot is that there’s no typically “Academy” fare, except perhaps the mere presence of Woody Allen, but the films themselves don’t really cry out to the taste of the Academy members, so that could help Banks sneak in.

Best Adapted Screenplay

12 Years a Slave, by John Ridley
Before Midnight, by Ethan Hawke, Julie Delpy and Richard Linklater
The Wolf of Wall Street, by Terrence Winter
Captain Phillips, by Billy Ray
Philomena, by Steve Coogan and Jeff Pope

I feel like the fact Before Midnight has unfortunately run out of awards momentum makes it perilously vulnerable, which is a shame because it’s a wonderful film and I’d love to see it get a nomination somewhere. I suppose the question becomes; what would replace it? Adapted Screenplay doesn’t feel as packed with contenders as the other categories, although it’s possible that August: Osage County could get in, but beyond that, I’m not really sure what could take the slot from Before Midnight.

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